January 2012
29 posts
Tuesday, January 31st
Prices were quiet overnight with a downward bias. High of 144’16 and a low of 143’28.
Busy slate of economic news today:-
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:30 Employment Cost Index
08:55 Redbook
09:00 Case-Shiller HPI
09:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Confidence
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
15:00 Farm Prices.
Yesterday, prices rose, only to drop late in the afternoon,...
Monday, January 30th
Prices rallied sharply overnight, rising to a high of 144’16. On the economic front we have:-
08:30 Personal Income and Outlay
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions.
In the short term, the 30 minute chart is in great looking upward sloping regression channel, and any shorting should only take place once the channel has been broken.
Longer term,...
Friday, January 27th
Price action pretty muted overnight, with a negative bias. Overnight high at 142’27, and a low at 142’07. Reasonably quiet on the economic news front:-
08:30 GDP
09:55 Consumer Sentiment
On the speakers list today:-
10:00 Dudley
On the 30 minute chart we have a lower high, giving rise to a possible downward sloping channel.
The daily chart shows a clear downward sloping...
Thursday, January 26th
A big move in bond prices overnight, recovering up to 61% of yesterday afternoons late sell off. An overnight low of 141’23 (in opening half hour), and a high of 142’26. Prices currently at 142’10.
On the economic data front we have:-
08:30 Durable Goods Orders & Jobless Claims
10:00 New Home Sales Index & LEI
11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements
...
Wednesday, January 25th
Overnight activity fairly active with a positive bias. The low was at 140’29 with a high at 141’21, which is where we are currently trading. 4 large block trades went through, in each case for 1500 contracts. Prices were 141’06, 141’08, 141’13 and 141’16.
On the news front, we have:-
07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 5...
Tuesday, January 24th
Good price action in the 30 year bond overnight, with a low at 140’31 and a high at 141’21.
On the Economic front we have the following:-
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
13:00 2 Year Note Auction
Speaking today:-
09:00 President Obama.
Overnight action has broken the downward trending channel on the 30 minute chart, suggesting...
Monday, January23rd
30 Year Bond prices initially rose overnight, before selling off, around 3:30 est. making fresh lows. Overnight high of 142’14, and a low of 142’10.
Economic News today:-
11:00 4 Week Bill Auction
11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions
The 141’10 level has some support, if it breaks expect prices to go to the 140’25 level pretty quickly. These support levels...
Friday, January 20th
30 Bond prices initially rose, reaching 143’00, before retreating and making fresh lows at the 142’08 level. Very little economic news today:-
10:00 Existing Home Sales.
The low at 142’08 is the 1.68% extension of the move down, and can be seen in the chart below:-
The short term down trend remains intact until we break out of the channel.
Thursday, January 19th
After selling off, and breaking the 30 minute upward sloping channel, prices sold off early this morning,reaching new lows at 143’28, breaking short term support at the 144’02 level. Short term direction is now bearish, with the next support level coming in at 143’14. Keep in mind that we are short term oversold.
Economic news:-
08:30 CPI, Housing starts and Jobless Claims
...
Wednesday, January18th
Prices remained in a tight range overnight, with a low at 144’26 and a high at 145’12 - right at short term resistance.
On tap:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:30 PPI
08:55 Redbook
09:00 TIC
10:00 Housing Market Index
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
Speaking tiday:-
09:30 Tarullo
The 30 minute chart bullish. Shown is the 30 minute chart with...
Dudley appointment
William C Dudley appointed Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System
9 January 2012
At their meeting in Basel this weekend, the central bank Governors of the Global Economy Meeting (GEM) 1 appointed William C Dudley as Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS). Mr Dudley is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and has...
Monday, January 16th
Today Is MLK Holiday, so pits are closed. Globex is open until 13:00 est.
Overnight volume quite light, and not too much activity. On the upside, the settlement Close at 145’00 was filled, and on the downside, the gap at 144’23 was also filled. Overnight high at 145’07, and low at 144’23.
If trading, use small lots.
Here is the 30 minute chart:-
Friday, January 13th
On tap:-
08:30 International Trade
Import and Export Prices
09:55 Consumer Sentiment
Speaking today:-
12:45 Lacker
13:00 Evans
Bonds were bid up overnight, and are close to yesterday’s highs. 30 minute chart attached:-
Trading for 01/12/2012
06:20 Short at 143’22, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’20 for +2 ticks
06:40 Short at 143’21, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’20 for +1 ticks.
07:05 Short at 143’20, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’20 for break-even.
08:00 Long at 143’19, 5 minute chart. Target met at 144’00 for +13 ticks.
Members of FOMC
Thursday, January 12th
On tap:-
08:30 Jobless Claims & Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements
10 Year TIPS Announcement
13:00 30 Year Bond Auction
14:00 Treasury Budget
16:40 Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply.
Overnight action very muted with a slight downward bias. 30 minute chart has just turned bearish.
Trading for 01/11/2012
05:50 Long at 142’30, 5 minute chart. Target reached at 143’07 for +9 ticks.
06:30 Long at 143’05, 30 minute chart. Target met at 143’18 for + 13 ticks
07:40 Long at 143’04, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’05 for +1 tick.
08:25 Long at 143’16, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’23 for +7 ticks.
11:15 Long at 143’17, 5 minute chart. Target met, out at...
Wednesday, January 11th
On tap today:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
13:00 10 Year Note Auction
14:00 Beige Book
Speaking today:-
08:40 Evans
09:00 Lockhart
12:30 Plosser
Very little action overnight. 30 minute chart attached:-
Trading for Tuesday, January 10th
07:00 Short at 142’15, 30 minute chart. Target met at 142’02 for +13 ticks.
08:00 Short at 142’12, 30 minute chart. Out at 142’11 for +1 tick.
09:50 Long at 142’15, 5 minute chart. Out at 142’25 for + 10 ticks.
11:10 Long at 142’22, 5 minute chart. Out at 142’31 for +9 ticks.
13:00 Long at 143’01, 30 minute chart. Out at 142’25 for...
Tuesday, January 10th
On tap today:-
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
10:00 Wholesale Trade
11:30 4 & 52 Week Bill Auctions
13:00 3 Yer Note Aution
Speaking today:-
10:30 Williams
13:30 George
Today’s 30 minute chart:-
Monday, January 9th
Very litle economic news tody.
11:00 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions
15:00 Consumer Credit
Speaking today:-
12:40 Lockhart.
Here is the 30 minute chart at the start of the day:-
Today's trading:-
06:00 Short at 142’07, 5 minute chart. Target reached at 141’30 for +9 ticks.
08:55 Long at 142’00, 5 minute chart. Target reached at 142’13 for +13 ticks.
09:05 Long at 142’19, 5 minute chart. Target reached at 143’00 for +13 ticks.
09:30 Long at 142’12, 30 minute chart. Target reached at 142’25 for +13 ticks.
12:05 Long at 143’01, 5...
Friday, January 6th.
On tap today:-
08:30 NFP
15:00 Treasury STRIPS.
Speaking today:-
09:00 Duffy
10:30 Rosengren
12:40 Duke
13:00 Blom Raskin
Not much action overnight, as the market awaits NFP.
Today's trading:-
05:30 Long at 142’25, 30 minute trade. Target met at 143’06 for +13 ticks.
06:00 Long at 143’01, 30 minute trade. Out of trade at 143’03 for +2 ticks.
07:35 Short at 143’00, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’00 for no gain.
07:50 Long at 143’01, 5 minute chart. Out at 142’29 for (-3) ticks.
08:30 Short at 142’07, 30 minute chart. Out at...
January 5th, 2012
On tap today:-
07:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
08:15 ADP Employment Report
08:30 Jobless Claims
10:00 ISM Non-Mfg Index
11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements
52 Week Bill Announcement
3 & 10 Year Note Announcements
30 Year Bond Announcement
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply
No speakers today. 30 minute chart at the start of the day:-
06:00 the 30 minute...
Trading for 01/04/2012
06:15 Long at 143’05, 5 minute chart. Target met at 143’14 for +9 ticks.
06:30 Long at 143’09, 30 minute chart. Target met at 143’22 for +13 ticks.
09:10 Long at 143’14, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’07 for (-7) ticks.
09:35 Short at 143’07, 5 minute chart. Target met at 142’30 +9 ticks.
10:10 Short at 143’05, 5 minute chart. Target met at...
Wednesday, January 4th
On tap today:-
07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
07:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
10:00 Factory Orders
11:30 4-Week Bill Auction.
30 minute chart at start of the day:-
Trading for 1/03/2012
06:30 Short at 143’21, 30 minute chart. Target met at 143’08 for +13 ticks.
08:25 Short at 143’13, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’15 for (-2) ticks.
08:55 Short at 143’12, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’13 for (-1) tick.
09:05 Short at 143’14, 5 minute chart. Out at 143’13 for +1 tick.
11:00 Short at 143’13, 30 minute chart. Out at 143’16 for...
Tuesday, January 3rd
Globex open at 06:00 est today.
Economic news on tap:-
10:00 ISM Mfg Index
Construction Spending
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions
14:00 FOMC Minutes
30 minute chart updated:-
