Thursday, May 31st
Quite a full calendar today:-
07:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
08:15 ADP Employment Report (Consensus 154,000 - Prior 119,000)
08:30 GDP (Consensus 1.9% - Prior 202%)
Jobless Claims (Consensus 370K - Prior 370K)
09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 56.1 - Prior 56.2)
10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion
11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements
15:00 Farm Prices
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply
Speaking today:-
08:30 Sandra Pianalto
After an initial spike, prices steadily declined overnight, turning the 30 minute trend chart bearish earlier this morning.
Levels to look for on this pullback (if that is what is taking place), are 148’06 (50%), 147’28 (61.85) and 147’13 (78.2%).
Trading has rolled over to the September contract, and the support and resistance chart reflects the change. Closest support is at 146’02, and resistance is at the overnight highs of 149’18.
Wednesday, May 30th
On today’s economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
10:00 Pending Home Sales Index
10:15 ed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $5.25 billion
11:30 4 and 52 Week Bill Auctions
Speaking today:-
13:00 William Dudley
13:20 Richard Fisher
16:30 Eric Rosengren
Treasury prices rebounded strongly overnight, hitting the contract high of 148’23. The 30 minute trend following chart remains bullish, with a close below 147’24 needed to flip it bearish. Some initial resistance has been met at this level, which is what one would have expected, utilizing the price support and resistance levels.
Looking at the 240 minute chart, this breakout should lead to the 150’07 level over the next couple of days.
Bear in mind that the June contract is used for this chart, and we will roll over to September on Friday.
Tuesday, May 29th
On the economic calendar:-
09:00 Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.3% - Prior 0.2%)
10:00 Consumer Confidence (Consensus 69.7 - Prior 69.2)
State Street Confidence Index
10:15
10:30 Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (Consensus 3.0 - Prior -3.4)
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions
Friday, May 25th
On the economic calendar:-
09:55 Consumer Sentiment
Bond market closes early today at 16:15 set. Expect lower volume, and a quieter day.
Treasury bonds were quiet overnight, staying within a 16 tick range - 147’15 on the upside, and 146’31 on downside. The 30 minute trend chart remained in a bearish trend, requiring a close above 147’23 to turn the trend bullish.
There are two settlement gaps, the most recent at 147’16 (1 tick above overnight high), and 146’25 from 5/22.
Longer term, the trend remains bullish, as evidenced by the regression channel on the 240 minute chart.
Looking at the 30 minute chart, we have a series of lower highs, and lower lows. Until this changes, the short term trend is down - perhaps looking to fill the 146’25 gap.
Thursday, May 24th
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Consensus 5.0% - Prior -4.2%)
Jobless Claims (Consensus 371 K - Prior 370 K)
10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion
11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements
52 Week Bill Announcemnt
13:00 7 Year Note Auction
16:30 FedBalance Sheet and Money Supply
Speaking today:-
13:00 William Dudley
Prices snapped back overnight rising to fill the settlement price at 148’09, erasing yesterday afternoon’s sell off. The 30 minute trend chart remains bullish, as does the 240 minute regression channel. Yesterday’s price action filled the upside settlement gap’s, and there remains the downside settlement gap at 146’25.
On a short term basis, we can expect some initial resistance at 148’12, which is the 78.2% retracement level. Should this be broken, new highs can be expected. 148’23 is the level to watch, as one would expect stops to be taken out above this price.
On the downside, the overnight low at 147’21 provides initial support with 146’22 being the next price support level.
Wednesday, May 22nd
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 New Home Sales (Consensus 335 K - Prior 328 K)
FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.3% - Prior 0.3%)
10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion
Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $5.00 billion
13:00 5 Year Note Auction
Speaking today:-
Naryana Kocherlakota addresses a luncheon in North Dakota.
Prices rose sharply overnight, and earlier this morning the 30 minute trend chart flipped bullish, filling Monday’s settlement gap at 147’29. This leaves two settlement gaps unfilled - at 148’10 and at 146’25. Both these gaps are shown on the chart below with red arrows.
Although we are bullish, we can expect some resistance at the 147’30 level (61.8%), and again at 148’09 (78.2%). The latter price coincides with the settlement gap - which is where long side targets should be for today.
Yesterday’s low at 146’22 provides a new price support level, and this is the closest support we have. Resistance is at the highs of 148’23.
Monday, May 21st
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions
Speaking today:-
Dennis Lockhart is in Tokyo making a speech.
Treasury prices sold off overnight, with the 30 minute trend chart remaining bearish. Keep in mind Friday’s settlement, which was at 148’10, which has not been filled overnight. It may not be filled today, but there is a strong likelihood, that it will be filled in the near future. The sell off from the recent highs, has resulted in a fairly decent regression channel, which is shown in the second chart.
A case could be made that we should be looking for a bottom around the lows of today, with 147’09 being the 61.8% retracement level, which is shown in the third chart.
If this is not the case, and the highs are in, then expect any rallies to be constrained by 148’01 to 148’06 levels.
Price support and resistance levels are shown, with the new high at 148’23 representing a new resistance level.
Good trading.
Friday, May 18th
No economic news releases today, and no Fed Bankers speaking, but we do have:-
10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $5.25 billion.
Yesterday was a huge up day in the T Bond market, and not surprisingly we pulled back some overnight. the 30 minute trend chart remains bullish, and will flip bearish on a close below 147’28.
There is no change in the price resistance and support levels, although yesterdays high at 148’23 might prove to be resistance. Will have to wait and see how the day develops.
Should we have a pullback, expect 147’18 (50%) to offer the first level of resistance, followed by 147’09 (61.8%0 and then 146’28 (78.2%).
Thursday, May 17th
In today’s economic calendar:-
08:30 Initial Claims (Consensus 365 K - Prior 367 K)
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Survey (Consensus 10.0 - Prior 8.5)
Leading Economic Indicators (Consensus 0.1% - Prior 0.3%)
10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion
11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements
2, 5 and 7 Year Note Announcements
13:00 10 Year TIPS Auction
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply
Speaking today:-
12:35 James Bullard
Prices rose sharply earlier this morning, setting new contract highs at 147’06.
It is difficult to put targets on the contract, but 147’22 looks appealing.
We have a new support line at 145’24, and above plain skies.
The trend is up - ride this trend.
Wednesday, May 16th
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase APllications
08:30 Housing Starts (Consensus 0.690 M - Prior 0.654 M)
09:15 Industrial Production (Consensus 0.5% - Prior 0.0%)
14:00 FOMC Minutes
Speaking today:-
12:30 James Bullard
Prices generally unchanged overnight, and the 30 minute trend chart remains bullish, requiring a close below 146’11 to turn it bearish.
The price support and resistance levels remain the same as yesterday.
The short term retracement levels might give the best clue - support should be at the 146’12 (50%), 146’07 (61.8%) and 146’01 (78.2%) levels.
I trade futures based on the 30 Year Treasury Bond. Follow me, deBrink, on twitter, or come trade with me at hein.van.beuningen on skype.
