Posted 1 hour ago

Thursday, May 31st

Quite a full calendar today:-

07:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report

08:15 ADP Employment Report (Consensus 154,000 - Prior 119,000)

08:30 GDP (Consensus 1.9% - Prior 202%)

         Jobless Claims (Consensus 370K - Prior 370K)

09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 56.1 - Prior 56.2)

10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion

11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements

15:00 Farm Prices

16:30 Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

Speaking today:-

08:30 Sandra Pianalto

After an initial spike, prices steadily declined overnight, turning the 30 minute trend chart bearish earlier this morning.

Levels to look for on this pullback (if that is what is taking place), are 148’06 (50%), 147’28 (61.85) and 147’13 (78.2%).

Trading has rolled over to the September contract, and the support and resistance chart reflects the change. Closest support is at 146’02, and resistance is at the overnight highs of 149’18.

Posted 1 day ago

Wednesday, May 30th

On today’s economic calendar:-

07:00 MBA Purchase Applications

07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

08:55 Redbook

10:00 Pending Home Sales Index

10:15 ed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $5.25 billion

11:30 4 and 52 Week Bill Auctions

Speaking today:-

13:00 William Dudley

13:20 Richard Fisher

16:30 Eric Rosengren

Treasury prices rebounded strongly overnight, hitting the contract high of 148’23. The 30 minute trend following chart remains bullish, with a close below 147’24 needed to flip it bearish. Some initial resistance has been met at this level, which is what one would have expected, utilizing the price support and resistance levels.

Looking at the 240 minute chart, this breakout should lead to the 150’07 level over the next couple of days.

Bear in mind that the June contract is used for this chart, and we will roll over to September on Friday.

Posted 2 days ago

Tuesday, May 29th

On the economic calendar:-

09:00 Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.3% - Prior 0.2%)

10:00 Consumer Confidence (Consensus 69.7 - Prior 69.2)

         State Street Confidence Index

10:15

10:30 Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (Consensus 3.0 - Prior -3.4)

11:00  4 Week Bill Announcement

11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions

Posted 6 days ago

Friday, May 25th

On the economic calendar:-

09:55 Consumer Sentiment

Bond market closes early today at 16:15 set. Expect lower volume, and a quieter day.

Treasury bonds were quiet overnight, staying within a 16 tick range - 147’15 on the upside, and 146’31 on downside. The 30 minute trend chart remained in a bearish trend, requiring a close above 147’23 to turn the trend bullish.

There are two settlement gaps, the most recent at 147’16 (1 tick above overnight high), and 146’25 from 5/22.

Longer term, the trend remains bullish, as evidenced by the regression channel on the 240 minute chart.

Looking at the 30 minute chart, we have a series of lower highs, and lower lows. Until this changes, the short term trend is down - perhaps looking to fill the 146’25 gap.

Posted 1 week ago

Thursday, May 24th

On the economic calendar:-

08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Consensus 5.0% - Prior -4.2%)

          Jobless Claims (Consensus 371 K - Prior 370 K)

10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion

11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements

           52 Week Bill Announcemnt

13:00 7 Year Note Auction

16:30 FedBalance Sheet and Money Supply

Speaking today:-

13:00 William Dudley

Prices snapped back overnight rising to fill the settlement price at 148’09, erasing yesterday afternoon’s sell off. The 30 minute trend chart remains bullish, as does the 240 minute regression channel. Yesterday’s price action filled the upside settlement gap’s, and there remains the downside settlement gap at 146’25.

On a short term basis, we can expect some initial resistance at 148’12, which is the 78.2% retracement level. Should this be broken, new highs can be expected. 148’23 is the level to watch, as one would expect stops to be taken out above this price.

On the downside, the overnight low at 147’21 provides initial support with 146’22 being the next price support level.

Posted 1 week ago

Wednesday, May 22nd

On the economic calendar:-

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications

10:00 New Home Sales (Consensus 335 K - Prior 328 K)

          FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.3% - Prior 0.3%)

10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion

         Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $5.00 billion

13:00 5 Year Note Auction

Speaking today:-

Naryana Kocherlakota addresses a luncheon in North Dakota.

Prices rose sharply overnight, and earlier this morning the 30 minute trend chart flipped bullish, filling Monday’s settlement gap at 147’29. This leaves two settlement gaps unfilled - at 148’10 and at 146’25. Both these gaps are shown on the chart below with red arrows.

Although we are bullish, we can expect some resistance at the 147’30 level (61.8%), and again at 148’09 (78.2%). The latter price coincides with the settlement gap - which is where long side targets should be for today.

Yesterday’s low at 146’22 provides a new price support level, and this is the closest support we have. Resistance is at the highs of 148’23.

Posted 1 week ago

Monday, May 21st

On the economic calendar:-

08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion

11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement

11:30 3 & 6 Month Bill Auctions

Speaking today:-

Dennis Lockhart is in Tokyo making a speech.

Treasury prices sold off overnight, with the 30 minute trend chart remaining bearish. Keep in mind Friday’s settlement, which was at 148’10, which has not been filled overnight. It may not be filled today, but there is a strong likelihood, that it will be filled in the near future. The sell off from the recent highs, has resulted in a fairly decent regression channel, which is shown in the second chart. 

A case could be made that we should be looking for a bottom around the lows of today, with 147’09 being the 61.8% retracement level, which is shown in the third chart.

If this is not the case, and the highs are in, then expect any rallies to be constrained by 148’01 to 148’06 levels.

Price support and resistance levels are shown, with the new high at 148’23 representing a new resistance level.

Good trading.

Posted 1 week ago

Friday, May 18th

No economic news releases today, and no Fed Bankers speaking, but we do have:-

10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $5.25 billion.

Yesterday was a huge up day in the T Bond market, and not surprisingly we pulled back some overnight. the 30 minute trend chart remains bullish, and will flip bearish on a close below 147’28.

There is no change in the price resistance and support levels, although yesterdays high at 148’23 might prove to be resistance. Will have to wait and see how the day develops.

Should we have a pullback, expect 147’18 (50%) to offer the first level of resistance, followed by 147’09 (61.8%0 and then 146’28 (78.2%).

Posted 2 weeks ago

Thursday, May 17th

In today’s economic calendar:-

08:30 Initial Claims (Consensus 365 K - Prior 367 K)

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Survey (Consensus 10.0 - Prior 8.5)

         Leading Economic Indicators (Consensus 0.1% - Prior 0.3%)

10:15 Fed Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $2.00 billion

11:00 3 & 6 Month Bill Announcements

         2, 5 and 7 Year Note Announcements

13:00 10 Year TIPS Auction

16:30 Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

Speaking today:-

12:35 James Bullard

Prices rose sharply earlier this morning, setting new contract highs at 147’06.

It is difficult to put targets on the contract, but 147’22 looks appealing.

We have a new support line at 145’24, and above plain skies.

The trend is up - ride this trend.

Posted 2 weeks ago

Wednesday, May 16th

On the economic calendar:-

07:00 MBA Purchase APllications

08:30 Housing Starts (Consensus 0.690 M - Prior 0.654 M)

09:15 Industrial Production (Consensus 0.5% - Prior 0.0%)

14:00 FOMC Minutes

Speaking today:-

12:30 James Bullard

Prices generally unchanged overnight, and the 30 minute trend chart remains bullish, requiring a close below 146’11 to turn it bearish.

The price support and resistance levels remain the same as yesterday. 

The short term retracement levels might give the best clue - support should be at the 146’12 (50%), 146’07 (61.8%) and 146’01 (78.2%) levels.